Luke takes a look

First of all, me in my heyday. I'm the good-looking one, on the left.

So where's (R)uffda!? Apparently, he's been traumatized by this morning's viewing of Inglorious Basterds and is upstairs in the bathtub, cowering with his rubbie-duckie.

That means it's time for good old Luke to take his turn at blogging this sucker and I, if I say so myself, have a great idea. What say we take a look at (R)uffda!'s pre-season rankings and see just how well El Grande Bozo is doing?

Forgotten his picks? Of course you have! Well, here they are (were):

1--Washington [Have to hand it to him for this one. Plus he picked the dogs.]

2--Penn State [Duh.]

3--Texas [Duh deux.]

4--California [Oopsie! Looks like the genius needs a map for that clue of his.]

5--Florida [Iffy.]

6--Nebraska [Too high, but credit for not making them the easy #4 pick.]

7--Minnesota [Jury is still out, but this one still looks OK, even if you think it's a homer-pick.]

8--Illinois [Would look good if not for that loss to FSU. But (R)uffda! would look good if not for that face.]

9--Stanford [Credit here, too. Who would have thought they should have been even lower?]

10--Hawaii [Too low, but not embarrassingly low.]

11--Iowa State [OK.]

12--UCLA [Hmmm. The guy has it in for the Bruins, true, but this one is only a little too low, so far.]

13--USC [Good. Trojans done in by Spartans. Go figure.]

14--San Diego [Another miss, thanks to the two Gaucho wranglings. But the Tor-whatevers could still make it back up here.]

15--Utah [Major error, one matched by the AVCA's preseason #17. But there's more Mountain West blunders to come.]

16--Oregon [Team should have been up there with UCLA, USC, Stanford and Cal. 12ish?]

17--Kentucky [Good call, (R) old boy.]

18--Michigan [Understandable. Wolverines' season, so far, is still pretty much the Nebraska win. But too low, by the results.]

19--Long Beach State [His faith in the Beach has once again proven to be misplaced. When will he ever learn? When will he e-ver lah-ern?]

20--Wichita State [Fair enough.]

21--St. Louis [Jury also on vacation about this team. Tough schedule, but bad loss to Cincinnati.]

22--Colorado State [The other Mountain West blunder, although they are playing better and now look like the best of the MWC.]

23--Purdue [Too high. Could improve.]

24--Baylor [Another nice one. Maybe.]

25--Arizona [And another one.]

26--UCI [Three in a row!!]

27--Pepperdine [Done in by the Army Blanket. Bummer.]

28--St. Mary's [OK.]

29--Texas A&M [OK.]

30--Cal Poly [Really, really bad call here.]

HM--Kansas State [Good spot, too high if anything.]

HM--Santa Clara [OK.]

Missing? Dayton, FSU and LSU. UNI and MSU (maybe, but probably not, for both). Notre Dame?

All in all? This dog has some bark to him. So far. I wish I could say otherwise, because now it just looks like he's used a nom de blog to pat himself on the back.

But if that's the case, only a real egomaniac would go ahead and post it, so I can't be he? Now can I?

Pre-season ranking

Read it and weep. Or just weep. I'm not picky.


1 Washington
2 Penn State
3 Texas
4 California
5 Florida
6 Nebraska
7 Minnesota
8 Illinois
9 Stanford
10 Hawaii
11 Iowa State
12 UCLA
13 USC
14 San Diego
15 Utah
16 Oregon
17 Kentucky
18 Michigan
19 Long Beach State
20 Wichita State
21 St. Louis
22 Colorado State
23 Purdue
24 Baylor
25 Arizona
26 UCI
27 Pepperdine
28 St. Mary's
29 Texas A&M
30 Cal Poly
HM Kansas State
HM Santa Clara

OK, just about there

I'd worry that I was boring my readers if I actually thought I had any readers, but since I do not suffer from that delusion, I soldier on.

Since I last posted, three "Bigs" have published their pre-season picks, although one of them has inexplicably misplaced 5 of its schools. I am sure they will be found in time for the season, but it is still awfully careless.

Anyhow, the Big 12 has picked Texas, Nebraska and Iowa State as its top 3 teams, followed by Texas A&M, Baylor and Kansas State. I am slightly surprised that TAMU is ahead of Baylor and a little more surprised that KSU has fallen so far out of favor, but they did lose a large chunk of their team (if I may use the term "chunk" without offending). Missouri at #8 is another eye-opener. Maybe.

The Big 10 has Penn State (of course), Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin and Purdue as their top 6, with only the Badgers spot bucking conventional wisdom, if there is actually any conventional wisdom in this field. The other 5 schools are a mystery, but we presume they are practicing, working hard, and will field teams this fall, even if the conference has forgotten all about them.

The Big East, all 15 of 'em, will be led by Louisville, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, South Florida, St. John's and Marquette, or so say the coaches. Is it just me or has the Big East become a little too big? Quiet! I know I have become a little too big. That's not what I meant, wiseass(es).

So do these three polls persuade me to rearrange my own rankings, the one on which I have been so diligently working? I think so. I'm going to drop Kansas State to an Honorable Mention status and elevate the Aggies into the top 30. I will also put Wisconsin back on the radar, although not quite blipping as an HM. Purdue might slide a spot or two, but I'm keeping them above the Badgers. So there.

I have a feeling I won't be seeing anything from the ACC or the SEC this weekend. I'll just have to rely on my own judgment, something that has invariably let me down in the past. Oh, well. I am sure the world will keep spinning.

Meanwhile, time to read more about Nebraska's "fast offense." Nothing excites the VolleyTalkers more than speculation about programs willing to put the pedal to the metal.

This just in

The West Coast Conference picks:

1 -- San Diego
2 -- Pepperdine
3 -- St. Marys
4 -- Santa Clara

This was exactly how I picked them! I know I'm impressed.


Correction: Turns out I actually had ranked St. Marys ahead of Pepperdine. I am less impressed with myself now (not that I was ever really all that impressed).


Volleyball magazine has also released their top 20 poll, probably in their "Girls of the Pac Ten" issue:

1. Penn State
2. Texas
3. Nebraska
4. Washington
5. Stanford
6. Cal
7. Hawai‘i
8. Minnesota
9. Florida
10. UCLA
11. Iowa State
12. USC
13. Illinois
14. Oregon
15. Michigan
16. San Diego
17. (tied) Wichita State
17. (tied) Saint Louis
19. Utah
20. Santa Clara

Others Receiving Votes: Purdue, Pepperdine, Cal Poly, Kansas State, Kentucky, Long Beach State, Wisconsin, Colorado State, Louisville, Texas A&M, Duke

Finally: I must give serious consideration to UCI over Cal Poly in the Top 30 or ignore the coaches' input. What to do?

The thirty teams (probably)

The WAC and the MWC have shared their findings. I had hoped for more, but I will blog rather than pursue the latest topic over at VolleyTalk – the absence of sex in Harry Potter World. Hmmm. That does sound interesting.

The news from the WAC – Hawaii picked to win it all! – is not much help. NMSU was picked to finish second, but I’m tempted to write that off as leftovers from seasons past. I really don’t think they have what they need coming back to crack the top 30, but I will keep an eye on them. The conference probably only has the one top 30 team this year, but it will be interesting to see who joins the battle for second – and how good that team is.

Utah is the pick in the MWC, collecting twice as many first place votes as #2 CSU. New Mexico edges out BYU for #3. Interesting. I’m still looking at two in the top 30.

Here’s what I have as of this evening, still subject to fine-tuning:

1-12 -- same as before.
13 – USC. Been warned away from them, but I think there’s too much talent and Mick’s too good of a coach for them to be as disappointing as they were in 2008. Let's hope I'm wrong.
14 – San Diego. Everyone is back, as far as I can tell. Possible problem is that they weren’t that good in 2008. Certainly not as good as I thought they’d be. So. This could be way too high for the Toreoreos.
15 – Utah. Seems right to me. And bravo! for surviving the Salvo/Anderson smackdown.
16 – Oregon. Someone I trust says they have weapons to replace Maricic and that the ball control will still be there. Still, I couldn't put them above the Trojans.
17 – Kentucky. A daring pick, I think. Almost everyone back, good talent, a decent 2008 showing.
18 – Michigan. I’m giving them the edge for #4 in the Big Ten, at least to start the season. Purdue could easily be flopped into this position and the Wolverines into Purdue’s.
19 – Long Beach State. I’ve been predicting the 49ers will return to the top 10-15 for a couple of seasons now. I’m being more cautious this year, but still going with top 20.
20 – Wichita State. I still have no idea how good the Shockers are, but they have everyone except Broussard back from 2008's Dangerfield squad.

21 – Purdue. Could be really good, but probably not right out of the terminal.
22 – St. Louis. Another team I wish I knew more about. Possible shortcomings in the middle, but otherwise a decent facsimile of the 2008 team, which was pretty good.
23 – CSU. Fornstrom loss is big, I think. They still have Nelson. Minnesota kid, dontchaknow?
24 – KSU. Could be way too high or way too low. They lost a lot of players and I'm guessing way too high. They have, however, been consistently top 20, so I'm probably wrong.
25 – Arizona. Underrated in 2008 and most everyone is back.
26 – Cal Poly. Another huge disappointment for me in 2008, but there's still talent there and more coming in.
27 – Baylor. Very possible that they are better than KSU. Everyone back and they have a good recruiting class. Big 12 dark horse.
28 – St. Marys. Why do I bother trying to evaluate the WCC? Past performance is indicative of future problems, bet your farm on it.
29 – Pepperdine. Ditto.
30 – Santa Clara. Ditto.

The one team I am really tempted to find room for? I thought I had one, but darned if I can find it now. I did consider Missouri, NMSU, Oregon State, Dayton and possibly a team from the ACC, but, not too seriously. Right now, I think I have my 30 teams.

Now then, about Harry Potter ...

Man at Work

My project – building a 2009 pre-season ranking – has been put on hold. I have been waiting patiently for the various conferences to post their own pre-season predictions so I can lean a bit on the opinions of the coaches, but to date only the Big West and the Atlantic 10 have done so. Now, I could go ahead and continue to build in spite of the flimsy foundation, but I won’t. This is what I like to call Integrity of Purpose.

I have no idea what that means, but I like to call it that, just like I like to call my bathtub "The Shallow Abyss of Cleanliness".

I know there are literally one or two people out there who might care about this development and to them (or to him (or to her)) all I can say is GET OFF MY BACK!

Do you think the Italians, when they were building the Parthenon, took shortcuts, left out a column or two? Or that the Japanese, when they were constructing that Great Wall over there in China, kept right on going when they ran out of bricks? How about the Forty-Niners when they were building those pyramids out there in the deserts of Egypt? What would have happened if they didn't have any pointy blocks for the top? I suppose you think they would have just used a potted plant for that last bit? A sphinx maybe. Well, a sphinx would have been damned cool, but you see my point, pardon the pun. Don't you?

So here’s what we do know: The Big West coaches have picked Long Beach State, UCI and Cal Poly to finish one-two-three in their conference; and the Atlantic 10 coaches have picked St. Louis, Dayton and Xavier in theirs. That helps, but it’s not all that I need.

So we wait. Patiently, more or less.

I'm giving up discussing politics in Off-the-Net. I'm dedicating myself to pure entertainment. And unentertaining recipes.

Next stage completed

Conference USA

Tulane appears to be losing 2/3 of their starters -- Linder, Radosevic, Rebrovic (their setter) and Wells, as well as Boatwright, Bernards and McGehee. That's what you call significant information.

Ditto for UAB, with Bozic, Dent, Domingos and Stefanov (their setter) moving on, as well as Vujovic. It will be interesting to see the coaches' pick for this conference title.

SunBelt

Florida International only loses Drumeva. Better yet, Rosa is still there.

Middle Tennessee only drops Asberry.

Big West

Cal Poly -- Atherstone, Houston and Waller. Nice class coming in.

LBSU -- Vargas and Verdin, plus Murray. Where are the recruits?

SEC

Kentucky only loses Nzenwa and could be the sleeper in the SEC.

Tennessee lost Clarke and Flynn, plus Loyd transferred. Two setters transferring in?

LSU -- Martinez and Washington, plus Skender

ACC

North Carolina -- Eskola, Jansma (setter) and Prussing

Clemson -- Abbott and Hepburn

Duke -- Carls and Norman, plus Wherry

Miami -- Ellis, plus Bomhack

FSU -- only Moon

Georgia Tech -- Kandell, Kellogg, Miller and Niekamp (setter). And Bond. Ouch.

Missouri Valley

Wichita State drops Broussard, plus Jakubov. Shockers could be looking at another stellar year?

Creighton -- Cvejdlik, Decker and Lebeda (setter)

Northern Iowa -- Sampson and Stelken, and Benson transferred to Wisconsin

Western Athletic

New Mexico State could be in a heap of hurt, with the departures of Gintant (setter), Simpson, Torres and Yon, plus Steinmetz transferred.

Big East

Cincinnati -- Elley, plus Peterson and Torok. Brandl and Nevelle transfers can't help, although recruiting class was ranked.

Louisville -- Kolesnikova, Matiasovska and Liu, and Tomko transferred

St. Johns -- Brooks, Chen, Kovaleva, Leszczynska (setter) and Yee. Another ouch.

Mid-American

Ohio -- Anderson and Dearmond, plus Maiden, Mangan and Mauck

Western Michigan -- only Vogl

Miami -- Schroeder, plus Wolfe


I'm ready to put together a preliminary top 30, and then I'll wait for the coaches' conference picks.

Less progress

Nothing new as to #13 on down, but I have gone through some potential teams, checking on who they lost from 2008. Probably could use a second set of eyes, but all I have is a dead dog. Not much help there.

West Coast

San Diego loses Sutherland (not a starter)
Pepperdine lost Chamberlain and Rubenstein
St Mary's lost Barker, Groess and Parker (but only Groess was a starter?)
Santa Clara lost Lowe and O'Brien, plus reserve Clark, plus transfer Parker
San Francisco is hit hard: Babin, Carroll, Gambos and Webster, all starters, plus Bednarova and transfer Lowe

Big Ten

Purdue drops Lynch and Merlau, plus Miller, and Ullrich and Nichols transfer
Michigan loses Karpiak and Hance
Indiana loses Pierce and Short
Michigan State has Verdun transfer, McDaniel was a non-starter
Wisconsin loses Jeffers, Dykstra and Salow, plus Klingsporn tranfers

Pac Ten

USC brings the entire team back, minus Carico -- which explains the recruiting class (although Fuller is highly-regarded)
Oregon is smacked a bit -- Forristall, Maricic, Swoboda, plus Milosevic move on
Arizona loses Buringrud and Goodenough
Arizona State only drops Giordano (dark horse in Pac Ten?)
Oregon State is minus Evans and Rinderknecht (another dark horse?)

Big 12

Kansas State may be hurting, losing Farr, Jantsch, Korobkova and Liliom
Texas A&M loses Bryant and Donaldson, plus Phillips
Baylor only loses Elliot (dark horse in Big 12?)
Missouri has two transfers, Wilson and Johnson
Oklahoma loses Barnes and two transfers, Machen and Bess

Mountain West

Utah bids adieu to Baird and Haynie
Colorado State says aufwiedersehen to Fornstrom (their stellar setter!) and Strauss
New Mexico has an adios for Fairchild, Tripp and Kwasigroch
BYU waves arrivederci to Dyer and Porter, plus transfer Marquardt (not to mention Kylin Munoz)

Atlantic 10

St. Louis appears to only lose Christman. Kern has her listed as their only middle in 2008, not sure why. I tried checking the Billikens' stats, but their website does not seem to have a link to any. Also odd. So I'm left with no clear idea about how large a part of their squad Christman was. Will 2009 be the Nightmare After Christman?
Dayton drops at least three starters, Akerhielm (B), Bateman and Robbe, plus Norris


Has any of this research helped me? A little. Only 30 or so more teams to look at.

Progress

I think I have my top 12 teams, not necessarily in this order, but not necessarily not in this order either.

#1 Washington (Swarbrick gone)
#2 Penn State (Fawcett, Harmotto, Holehouse)
#3 Texas (Paolini)
#4 California (Beck, Reilly, Solomon)
#5 Florida (Bowers)
#6 Nebraska (Larson, Gates, Schwartz)
#7 Minnesota (Roehrig, Hartmann, Schmidt, Vatterrodt)
#8 Stanford (Barboza, Akinradewo, Waller, Fisher)
#9 Illinois (Bazzetta, Turner)
#10 Hawaii (Hittle, Houston, Keefe, Thomas, Simmons (t))
#11 Iowa State (Bisenius, Malcom, Vos)
#12 UCLA (Spicer, Piggott (t))

Now, it gets difficult, although I believe USC, KSU, Purdue, Michigan probably, are all top 20. But I have work to do elsewhere.

2009 pre-season poll

Holy crapoly! Ron Kern's pre-season poll is due out in a couple of weeks and I am still one of the pollsters. (We call ourselves "pollsters", as you can see. Dweebs may be more accurate, but we're not using that. End of discussion.) It's a lot of work, let me tell you, with very little appreciation in return. Ron appreciates it, of course, since the damned poll has his name on it, but that's about it.

Here's what I've gathered together so far, after a good three hours of unappreciated work:

1) My 2008 end-of-the-year ranking -- as good a place to start as any, if I say so myself.
2) Pablo's 2008 end-of-the-year ratings. Si!
3) Ron's final 2008 RKPI. Required, says Ron.
4) PrepVolleyball.com's 2009 recruit lists -- senior aces and top recruiting classes.

What I still need:

1) A refresher on the 2008 seniors (and 2009 transfers) -- damned if I remember anyone other than Larson, Barboza, Akinradewo, Fawcett and Harmotto. I bet there were more.
2) That AVCA preview deal they do every year, which gets more and more unreliable with each passing year. Half-assed comes to mind, if you pardon my Deutsch. It would not surprise me if they just skip it this year.
3) Pre-season conference rankings. Always nice to have to coaches' input.
4) A shot or ten of whiskey.

Excited to see the results? Me neither, but that's what I'm going to have for you. It'll be good for a blog or ten.

Oh! I remember something else. A list of surprises so far. Stuff I never knew or have forgotten already:

1) USC isn't in the top 30 recruiting classes and they are coming off of a 17-12 year. 2010's class looks fabulous, but what's 2009 going to be like for the Trojanettes? No Carico either.
2) The RKPI has those funky rankings for St. Louis (#8) and Tulane (#19). Shall I ignore them again?
3) Pablo has those funky ratings for UCLA (#8) and Florida (#22). Ditto?
4) The RKPI and Pablo really don't get along -- see Florida (#12 v. #22), Colorado State (#21 v. #49), Oregon (#7 v. #20), Iowa State (#31 v. #11), Michigan (#39 v. #14), New Mexico State (#33 v. #16), St. Louis (#8 v. #27), Arizona (#78 v. #23!), Texas A&M (#57 v. #13!), Ohio (#23 v. #49), Middle Tennessee (#24 v. #66), and Florida International (#25 v. #78!).
5) Top 10 recruiting classes include Purdue (#8), Cal Poly (#9) and Iowa State (#10). Nice to see some rising programs getting even better.

More to come ...